The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its official cash rate unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday, but a closely divided vote highlighted growing pressure on policymakers to tighten monetary policy again as global energy shocks feed into inflation.

In a rare split decision, three members of the policy committee voted for a rate increase, while three supported holding rates steady. The governor cast the deciding vote in favor of maintaining the current stance.

Despite the pause, the central bank struck a more hawkish tone, warning that interest rates may need to rise “sooner and by more than previously expected” due to persistent inflation risks and external cost pressures.

The RBNZ said the path of future rate changes will depend on whether wage and price pressures remain sticky or if weaker economic activity helps bring inflation down.

Markets reacted cautiously, with the New Zealand dollar holding steady at around $0.7162. Traders slightly increased expectations of a rate hike at the July meeting, with probability estimates rising to about 72%.

Policymakers are grappling with renewed inflation pressures linked to rising global energy costs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly disruptions affecting oil shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Inflation in New Zealand has remained above target, with the central bank forecasting it could reach around 4.3% in the coming quarter before easing later.

The policy outlook has shifted sharply compared to earlier expectations for rate cuts, reflecting a broader global trend where central banks—including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia—are increasingly cautious about inflation persistence driven by energy and supply shocks.

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