Japan’s exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in September, snapping four consecutive months of decline, according to official trade data. The rebound was driven primarily by strong demand from Asian markets, particularly mainland China, although shipments to the United States continued to fall sharply.

Exports to Asia surged 9.2%, with exports to China — Japan’s largest trading partner — increasing 5.8%. In contrast, exports to the U.S., Japan’s second-largest market, fell 13.3%, highlighting the lingering impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods, especially automobiles.

The rise in semiconductor exports, up 12.6% year-on-year, was a major contributor to the overall growth. However, auto exports to the U.S. dropped 24.2% in value — a slight improvement from the 28.4% decline in August.

Tokyo’s July trade deal with Washington, which reduced U.S. tariffs on Japanese exports from 25% to 15%, took effect on August 7 and helped soften the blow from earlier protectionist measures under President Donald Trump.

On the import side, Japan recorded a 3.3% year-on-year increase, reversing the 5.2% decline in August and surpassing the 0.6% growth forecast by Reuters.

Economists, however, cautioned against overinterpreting the rebound. Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist and head of research at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC), told CNBC that the rise “is not as strong as it appears on the surface,” noting it was partly due to a low comparison base from last year. He expects gradual recovery in external demand but warned that U.S.-China trade tensions continue to cloud Japan’s export outlook.

The trade figures come as Japan welcomed its first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, following months of political instability and the resignation of Shigeru Ishiba. Takaichi’s policies favor monetary easing and large fiscal stimulus, measures likely to weaken the yen and boost the competitiveness of Japanese exporters — a key driver of the Nikkei 225, which hit a record high this week.

Despite the yen’s weakness — hovering near 150 per U.S. dollar in September compared to 147 a year earlier — Suzuki noted that currency effects alone have not led to a major export surge. “Policy factors such as tariffs seem to have a larger impact than FX on exports,” he said.

Overall, while Japan’s September trade data signals a positive shift, analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of the export recovery amid global trade uncertainties.