The United States has claimed that India is scaling down its purchases of Russian crude, with Indian refiners reportedly cutting imports by nearly 50% following discussions with Washington. However, conflicting statements from Indian authorities and analysts suggest the reality is more nuanced.

Conflicting Claims

During a weekly briefing, MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal denied any phone call between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump on the issue, while Indian officials have neither confirmed nor endorsed Trump’s claim that Modi personally assured a halt in Russian oil imports. State-run refiners say they await official guidance, and private refiners highlight that imports cannot be abruptly stopped due to long-term contracts and refinery requirements.

India’s Reliance on Russian Crude

India is the world’s third-largest crude consumer, relying on 87% of its daily 5.5 million barrels per day from overseas. Traditionally, India sourced most of its oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, but Western sanctions on Russia after the Ukraine conflict offered India heavily discounted Russian oil.

Russian crude, which was only 1.7% of India’s imports in FY20, surged to nearly 40% in FY24, making Russia India’s largest crude supplier. According to trade analytics firm Kpler, Russian deliveries in September 2025 stood at about 1.6 million barrels per day, roughly 34% of all imports, with flows rebounding to 1.77 million bpd in early October. Analysts note that current discussions of major cuts are largely political posturing.

Practical Constraints on Cutting Russian Oil

Stopping Russian imports abruptly is logistically impossible. Crude cargoes are booked weeks in advance, and much of India’s supply until late November is already contracted. Even under a best-case scenario, reductions could only begin from late November if refiners halt fresh bookings immediately.

Economics also play a key role. Although discounts on Russian Urals crude have fallen from $19–20 per barrel in 2023 to $3.5–5 today, they remain attractive. The crude also suits Indian refineries, producing higher volumes of diesel and jet fuel, which are profitable for domestic consumption and exports.

Global Implications

Russia currently exports up to 4.8 million bpd, with China (47%), India (38%), and Turkey as top buyers. Any significant reduction in Indian imports could tighten global supply and push crude prices back toward $100 per barrel, risking inflation.

Switching to alternative suppliers would be costly. Analysts estimate India could face an additional $3–5 billion per year if it shifts purchases to the Middle East, U.S., or Africa/Latin America, with logistical and refinery constraints limiting U.S. imports to about 500,000 bpd.

Energy Security Remains the Priority

While the U.S. has criticized India for profiteering by buying discounted Russian crude and exporting refined products, India maintains that it has adhered to G7 price cap rules and violated no laws. Experts, including Prashant Vasisht of Icra Ltd., note that domestic refiners will continue to make purchases guided by economics and availability, and that shrinking Russian discounts have made Middle Eastern crude more competitive again.

For now, India’s official position is unchanged: no formal decision has been announced, and Russian oil continues to flow into the country, underscoring that energy security remains the top priority amid political pressures.