Chicago corn futures extended gains into a fourth session on Friday, positioning themselves for the first weekly gain in five weeks, as traders speculated that U.S. harvest yields may fall short of estimates and rain forecasts threaten to delay fieldwork.

Soybean futures also rose after the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a stronger-than-expected September soy crush, signaling robust demand. Meanwhile, wheat remained flat after recent gains driven by rising corn prices and short-covering, following a slide to five-year lows earlier in the week.

Market Fundamentals

• The most-active CBOT corn contract (ZC1!) rose 0.1% to $4.22-1/4 per bushel, up 2.3% from last Friday.
• CBOT soybeans (ZS1!) added 0.3% to $10.13-1/2 per bushel, set for a 0.7% weekly gain.
• CBOT wheat (ZW1!) remained flat at $5.02-1/2 per bushel, up 0.8% for the week.

All three crops have experienced sharp declines since 2022 due to abundant supply, but recent gains have been supported by a softening U.S. dollar, which makes commodities cheaper for international buyers. Commodity funds have been net buyers of all three crops since Tuesday.

Market Drivers and Risks

• U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key crop data, keeping markets cautious.
• Corn yields continue to appear below early estimates, with analysts at StoneX noting that anecdotal reports suggest the crop may be smaller than initially projected.
• Rising U.S.-China trade tensions have weighed on soybean prices, as hopes for renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans remain muted. China’s boycott of U.S. soy is offset partially by high Brazilian bean prices and available state reserves.
• Russian wheat exports resumed to Indonesia in October, with expectations of accelerated shipments following a slow start to the season.
• A cold front over Argentina’s agricultural regions next week could negatively affect wheat yields, according to the Buenos Aires grains exchange.

Broader Market Context

Global financial markets showed caution on Thursday, with Wall Street stocks closing lower and gold prices surging, driven by declining financial shares and lingering U.S.-China trade tensions.

Overall, while U.S. grain markets remain under pressure from macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, weather concerns, trade dynamics, and strong demand signals are providing support for corn, soybeans, and wheat heading into the weekend.