Performance Overview:

• Over the past year, HDB has focused on consolidation, with subdued disbursements, modest AUM growth, and emerging asset-quality pressures in some key segments.
• Management has prioritized stability over scale, reinforcing collections, tightening underwriting frameworks, and maintaining a conservative stance on unsecured lending.
• This strategy positions HDB to recalibrate growth with resilience as the operating environment normalizes.

Outlook & Valuation:

• Trades at 2.5x FY27E P/BV.
• Estimated CAGR FY25-28: Disbursements 12%, AUM 17%, PAT 24%.
• FY28 projected RoA/RoE: ~2.5% / 16%.
• Rating: Neutral | Target Price: INR 800 (based on 2.5x Sep’27E BVPS).

Summary: HDB Financial is in a phase of cautious growth, emphasizing risk management and stable fundamentals while offering moderate upside at current valuation.