Analysts say Chilean financial markets are poised for a positive reaction following the results of Sunday’s first-round presidential vote, which signaled stronger-than-expected support for right-leaning candidates and raised expectations of more market-friendly policies ahead.

Despite finishing slightly behind governing coalition candidate Jeannette Jara, far-right contender José Antonio Kast is now widely seen as the frontrunner for the December 14 runoff. Combined, right-leaning candidates captured more than 50% of the total vote, a dynamic analysts say positions Kast to consolidate support.

Analysts Expect Boost for Chilean Assets

“This outcome is seen as moderately bullish for Chilean assets,” said Thierry Larose, portfolio manager at Vontobel.
He added that a likely Kast presidency—paired with a right-leaning but fragmented Congress—would support Chilean bonds, equities, and the peso.

Chile’s currency has been a regional underperformer this year, gaining just over 7%, compared with double-digit appreciation in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. With the U.S. dollar softening, analysts say the peso has room to catch up.

Right-Wing Momentum Reduces Policy Risks

Analysts highlighted that the strong showing by conservative platforms could reduce uncertainty around the implementation of pro-market measures.

“This lowers the execution risk of some of the pro-market initiatives presented by the right-wing candidate… which in our view generates support for equities,” said Diego Celedón at JPMorgan.

Chile’s stock market has already reflected strong sentiment:

• MSCI Chile equity index has surged over 46% year-to-date
• Outperforming the 29% rise in the broader MSCI Emerging Markets index

Shift in Political Priorities

The latest vote marks a shift away from the left-wing momentum that brought President Gabriel Boric to power, driven by hopes for a new constitution that later failed to materialize.
Current political debate is instead dominated by public security and immigration, issues that have resonated strongly with voters.

A Kast victory would usher in the most right-leaning administration since the Pinochet era, analysts noted.

Outlook: Fiscal Focus and Investment Push

“For markets, a Kast victory offers the prospects of fiscal consolidation and a renewed focus on attracting much-needed investments and boosting Chile’s lacklustre growth,” said Nafez Zouk, sovereign debt analyst at Aviva Investors.

Zouk added that investors may find reassurance in a political environment conducive to centrist, stability-focused macroeconomic policies, with candidates debating how much, rather than whether, to tighten fiscal accounts.