UBS expects copper prices to rise sharply in 2026 due to ongoing supply disruptions and robust long-term demand driven by electrification and clean-energy investments.

Price Outlook:

• March 2026 Forecast: $11,500 per ton
• Year-End 2026 Target: $13,000 per ton

Supply Deficits:

• 2025: 230,000-ton shortfall (up from 53,000 tons)
• 2026: 407,000-ton shortfall (up from 87,000 tons)
  Supply constraints are expected to persist due to disruptions at major producers, slower recovery in Chile, and ongoing protests in Peru.

Dollar and Fed Dynamics:

• The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen 0.52% over the past five days and 8.19% YTD, making copper more attractive to global buyers.
• Fed rate cut expectations for December, with an 85.1% probability of lowering rates to 3.50–3.75%, could support copper by easing financial pressure on manufacturers and construction firms.

Demand Tailwinds:

• Rising copper demand is expected to continue at 2.8% growth in both 2025 and 2026, fueled by:
  • Electric vehicles
  • Renewable energy projects
  • Power-grid investments
  • Expanding data-center infrastructure

ETFs for Copper Exposure:

• Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX): +20.86% past month, +56.27% YTD
• United States Copper Index Fund (CPER): +6.18% past month, +18.60% YTD
• iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (ICOP): +16.55% past month, +48.63% YTD
• Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP): +15.75% past month, +37.31% YTD
• Themes Copper Miners ETF (COPA): +18.16% past month, +64.26% YTD

UBS Recommendation: Any short-term price dips are likely temporary, and investors are encouraged to maintain long copper positions to benefit from the structural supply-demand imbalance.