U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that trade negotiations with India are progressing well and suggested he could visit the country in 2026 if invited by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump noted that India “has largely stopped buying oil from Russia” and described Modi as “his friend” and a “great man,” recalling his previous visit to India.

India-U.S. relations have faced strain in recent months, with tensions arising over steep tariffs, H1B visa fees, Trump’s claims regarding India-Pakistan relations, and India’s purchases of Russian crude. Currently, Indian exports face 50% tariffs from the U.S., higher than China’s 47%.

Prospects for Trade Deal
Alexandra Hermann, head of Southeast Asia Research at Oxford Economics, said both sides appear optimistic that a trade deal could be reached by the end of the year, possibly within weeks. The deal could lower U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 20%, aligning India with other Asian peers like Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines. However, tariffs may not fall to the 15% level seen for Japan and South Korea due to ongoing disputes over Russian oil purchases, agricultural imports, and limited U.S. investment commitments.

Impact of Russian Oil Sanctions
Last month, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21. In response, Indian and Chinese refiners have begun reducing their imports of Russian crude, which is trading at the steepest discount to Brent in Asia in the past year.

Prateek Pandey, head of APAC oil and gas research at Rystad Energy, noted that India’s long-term goal of fully phasing out Russian oil is not realistic. As Russian crude becomes cheaper, New Delhi’s “economics first” approach will be tested.

Overall, Trump’s remarks signal a potential easing of trade tensions with India, offering hope for a reduction in tariffs and renewed cooperation between the two countries.