Moscow – Sberbank Chief Executive German Gref said on Wednesday that a “fair” exchange rate for the Russian rouble would be in the range of 98 to 105 roubles per U.S. dollar, compared with the current market rate of 78.5.

Speaking at a conference in Moscow, Gref noted that such a rate would be beneficial for Russian exporters, whose profits have been affected this year by the rouble’s strong performance.

The rouble has appreciated more than 30% against the dollar in 2025, after earlier surges exceeding 40%, driven by high domestic interest rates and market expectations of a resolution to the war in Ukraine. Analysts have long predicted a weakening of the rouble, but it has remained resilient, further supported by shrinking imports.

The currency showed little reaction to new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which collectively account for roughly 35% of Russia’s foreign currency market.

Looking ahead, analysts expect the rouble to soften in December as foreign currency inflows decline due to sanctions, and a planned reduction in the central bank’s forex sales from January 1, 2026, is also expected to exert downward pressure.