Rising geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could put more than a tenth of India’s non-oil exports at risk, highlighting the vulnerability of trade flows passing through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, according to a Moneycontrol analysis.

Israel and the United States launched air strikes on Iran on February 28, pushing the region to the brink of conflict for the second time in eight months. Tehran responded within hours with retaliatory missile and drone strikes, heightening fears of a wider escalation that could disrupt maritime trade routes across West Asia.

For India, the risks extend beyond energy security. While three of India’s major crude suppliers ship oil through the Hormuz passage, a significant portion of non-oil trade is also exposed to potential disruptions in the region.

India exported nearly $47.6 billion worth of non-oil goods to Gulf economies reliant on shipping routes linked to the Strait of Hormuz. This represents roughly 13.2% of India’s total non-oil exports, estimated at $360.2 billion, underscoring the scale of potential exposure if maritime flows are interrupted.

The United Arab Emirates accounts for the largest share of India’s exposure, with exports valued at $28.5 billion, followed by Saudi Arabia at $11.7 billion. Other key markets include Iraq ($2.8 billion), Kuwait ($2.1 billion), Qatar ($1.7 billion) and Iran ($1.25 billion).

Located between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is among the world’s busiest maritime corridors, handling a substantial share of global energy shipments along with large volumes of merchandise trade.

Any disruption — even temporary — could push up freight costs, delay deliveries and reshape trade flows across Asia and Europe.

Unlike oil imports, where India can gradually diversify sourcing, non-oil exports remain closely tied to Gulf demand. Key exposed sectors include engineering goods, gems and jewellery, food products, chemicals and construction materials — industries that depend heavily on uninterrupted maritime logistics.

An escalation in hostilities could therefore weigh not only on global energy markets but also on India’s export momentum.