India is heading toward one of its largest wheat surpluses ever, which may compel the government to review its export ban next year, according to Ajay Goyal, Chairman of the Wheat Products Promotion Society. He explained that with government wheat stocks likely to exceed 50 million tonnes by June 1, policy changes are inevitable because “the market doesn’t need the government wheat this year.”

Surplus-Driven Pressure on Policy

Goyal emphasized that this surplus is the most significant development in the wheat sector, impacting procurement, pricing, private trade behavior, and the overall supply-demand balance. Early rabi sowing—about 10–15 days ahead of schedule—has set the stage for wheat acreage to rise 3–4% over last year. Weather permitting, India could harvest a record 117 million tonnes of wheat, surpassing all previous production highs.

Procurement at Multi-Year Highs

On the procurement front, Goyal expects one of the strongest carryovers in years. The government may procure 30 million tonnes of new wheat while carrying over 20 million tonnes from existing stocks, pushing reserves to multi-year highs. This reinforces the need for the Centre to “relook at the entire export ban,” he stated.

Policy Inaction and Weak Demand

Goyal also highlighted policy delays on wheat product exports, noting that the industry is still awaiting a Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) notification. With a supply glut building, he warned it would be “unfortunate if it doesn’t come now,” especially as the next 3–4 months could see intense oversupply.

Meanwhile, wheat demand remains surprisingly weak. Despite winter conditions, GST reductions, and favorable weather, consumption across products such as flour, biscuits, bread, noodles, and baked goods has been flat. Overall wheat demand is “just static,” according to Goyal, with private traders still holding 4–5 million tonnes of stock, which they are likely to carry into the next year.

Subdued Prices and Market Disinterest

Wheat prices have remained stagnant since the start of the season, pressured by oversupply and lackluster buying. Even government Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) operations have seen poor participation, with releases occurring only once every two weeks and less than one-third of the wheat being lifted.

Goyal concluded that the market—characterized by surplus stocks, weak demand, and stagnant prices—is showing clear signs of disinterest. In his view, the government will eventually be forced to revisit its stance on wheat exports.