India’s economy continues to outperform expectations, with GDP growing by 8.2% in the July–September quarter of 2025 — nearly a full percentage point higher than market estimates. This marks the third time in nine months that actual growth has significantly outpaced projections, including those from the Reserve Bank of India.

Persistent forecasting challenges are attributed to incomplete datasets, periodic revisions in national accounting methods, and the complexity of tracking a rapidly transforming economy. With India now the world’s fifth-largest economy, its increasingly unpredictable growth trajectory is prompting analysts and policymakers to revisit their modelling approaches and reliance on conventional indicators.