March 3, 2026 – Cryptocurrency activity in Iran once again surged in response to geopolitical tensions, with onchain data showing roughly $10.3 million in outflows from major Iranian exchanges following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Feb. 28, according to a new analysis from Chainalysis.
Hourly outflows, previously subdued, climbed sharply after news of the strikes broke, at times approaching $2 million per hour through March 2. The movement mirrors patterns observed during previous domestic unrest and regional confrontations. Earlier reports from Elliptic indicated a 700% spike in withdrawals from Iran’s largest exchange immediately after the attack, while TRM Labs noted that overall trading volumes later fell by 80% as internet restrictions took hold.
A Familiar Pattern
Chainalysis argues the latest outflows are part of a broader trend. In a January report, the firm estimated Iran’s crypto ecosystem reached approximately $7.8 billion in 2025, with trading volumes typically spiking during episodes of unrest, sanctions escalation, or clashes with Israel.
During past protest waves, bitcoin withdrawals increased steadily in the days leading up to government-imposed internet blackouts, then dropped sharply once connectivity was cut. Activity resumed when access returned, suggesting some users anticipated restrictions and moved funds into self-custody ahead of time.
Destination and Motives Unclear
Despite the surge in outflows, analysts caution that it is too early to determine whether the movements represent retail capital flight, internal exchange liquidity management, or state-linked activity. Internet throttling, operational disruptions, and security measures can distort short-term signals.
Chainalysis noted that transfers were routed to overseas exchanges, other domestic platforms, and a large portion to unidentified wallets. These addresses could reflect users shifting to self-custody, exchanges relocating funds for operational security, or state-aligned actors rerouting assets.
The pattern reinforces the view that crypto often acts as a financial pressure valve in Iran during times of stress, even if the precise motivations behind individual transfers remain unresolved.
Iranian exchanges have faced ongoing sanctions and cybersecurity risks, including a 2025 hack of Nobitex that resulted in more than $90 million in losses. In periods of heightened tension, platforms may proactively shift liquidity away from publicly known wallets as a defensive measure.