Russian energy flows to Europe and Asia are showing mixed trends amid geopolitical tensions and infrastructure disruptions. Gazprom’s average daily natural gas supplies to Europe via the TurkStream pipeline fell 2.3% year-on-year in February to 54.5 million cubic metres, as Turkey remains the only transit route following Ukraine’s refusal to extend its supply deal. Total deliveries for the month reached 1.52 billion cubic metres, slightly below last year, while the first two months of 2026 saw a 4% increase to 3.26 bcm. Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe have fallen dramatically over recent years, with 2025 seeing a 44% drop to just 18 bcm, the lowest since the mid-1970s.

At the same time, Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports rose 5.8% year-on-year to 5.5 million metric tons in January-February 2026. European imports increased 7%, largely from Novatek’s Yamal LNG and Gazprom-controlled Sakhalin-2, although Arctic LNG 2 production remains constrained due to U.S. sanctions. The Arctic Metagaz LNG tanker sank in the Mediterranean after an attack, highlighting the vulnerability of energy shipping routes amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

In Kazakhstan, oil and gas condensate production surged about 43% in February from January as the Chevron-led Tengiz field recovered from a major outage, lifting output to 590,000 barrels per day. This contributed to Kazakhstan’s total oil production of 1.58 million bpd, close to the OPEC+ quota. The Tengiz field’s recovery is crucial as it accounts for around 40% of the country’s oil output, though previous Ukrainian drone attacks on export terminals and stormy weather have disrupted shipments.

Meanwhile, Russian oil product exports from Tuapse port are expected to rise 119% month-on-month in March to 755,000 metric tons following a resumption of refinery operations after a drone attack in December. Diesel, naphtha, fuel oil, and vacuum gasoil exports are all set to increase, indicating a rebound in supply after recent disruptions. Hungary’s MOL also received 35,000 tons of Ukrainian crude via the Druzhba pipeline after a Russian attack and fire disrupted operations, preventing further escalation.

Overall, energy supply disruptions, sanctions, and geopolitical tensions continue to create volatility in oil, gas, and LNG markets across Europe and Asia. While production and exports are gradually recovering in some regions, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and targeted attacks on infrastructure raise concerns over global energy security and market stability.