Dogecoin (DOGE) may be setting up for a rebound, as fresh on-chain data points to a shift in short-term market structure. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@ali_charts) highlighted on X that Dogecoin’s net supply on centralized exchanges has turned positive, a pattern that has historically preceded sharp price rebounds.

Exchange Flows Turn Positive

Martinez referenced a Glassnode chart tracking monthly net inflows and outflows across all exchanges. Green bars represent net inflows (more DOGE moving into exchanges), while red bars show net outflows.

• From mid-2024 to late 2024, moderate green and red periods alternated before a cluster of strong green bars coincided with DOGE rising from below $0.10 to a local high of $0.48.
• In early and mid-2025, exchange flows became mixed, with price fluctuating between roughly $0.12 and $0.30.
• In late 2025, persistent net outflows (red bars) coincided with a price decline to the low-$0.20s.

The latest data point shows a tall green bar crossing above zero, indicating net inflows have returned. DOGE’s price at this point is slightly above $0.15, suggesting a potential rebound signal according to Martinez.

Critical Support and Demand Zones

Martinez also shared URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) data showing where DOGE supply last moved on-chain:

• A dominant bar at $0.0739 contains over 28.2 billion DOGE (18.6% of measured supply), forming a strong support zone.
• Between $0.07–$0.16, there is a gap with minimal intermediate bars, implying thin support in this range.
• Above $0.16, a smaller cluster appears at $0.1626, containing 4.4 billion DOGE (2.9% of supply).

Martinez warns that support quickly disappears below $0.16, with the next substantial demand zone around $0.07.

Holder Concentration and Cost-Basis Heatmap

A cost-basis distribution heatmap shows two key cohorts:

• Lower band: $0.081–$0.0828 with 27.4 billion DOGE.
• Upper band: $0.201–$0.205 with 12.1 billion DOGE.

This distribution highlights DOGE trading between a dense realized floor near $0.08 and a significant holder cluster near $0.20, with newly positive exchange flows now in focus for traders.

At press time, DOGE was trading at $0.158, and market watchers are monitoring whether the positive exchange inflows translate into a broader upward move.