China’s Economic Slowdown Deepens in October

China’s economic slowdown worsened in October as weak consumer demand, a prolonged property slump, and disruptions from the National Day holiday weighed heavily on growth indicators.

Table of Contents

Investment Declines Sharply

Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.7% in the first ten months of 2024, steeper than the 0.5% decline through September and worse than analysts’ expectations of a 0.8% fall.
This marks China’s first sustained contraction in fixed-asset investment since the pandemic year of 2020.

On a monthly basis, investment plunged 11.4%, the weakest reading since early 2020, as Beijing continued efforts to control industrial overcapacity and manage the housing downturn.

Property investment sank 14.7% (Jan–Oct)
Manufacturing investment rose 2.7%
Utilities/infrastructure spending jumped 12.5%

Industrial Activity Slows

Industrial production grew 4.9% in October, down from 6.5% in September and below forecasts.
Manufacturing activity also contracted sharply, hitting a six-month low as factories shut during the Oct. 1–8 holiday.

Consumer Demand Remains Weak

Retail sales increased 2.9%, slightly above expectations but marking the fifth consecutive monthly slowdown—the lowest reading of the year.

Urban unemployment eased to 5.1%, down from 5.2% in September.

Housing Market Under Pressure

Home prices continued to fall:

0.5% drop month-on-month — steepest since Oct 2023
2.2% decline year-on-year

This reflects ongoing weak demand in the crisis-hit real estate sector.

Inflation Edges Higher

CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year — first positive reading since June
Core CPI increased 1.2%, the highest since Feb 2024

Exports Contract Unexpectedly

Exports shrank for the first time in nearly two years amid rising U.S.–China trade tensions prior to the tariff-reduction agreement reached at the end of the month.

Policy Outlook

Economists expect minimal stimulus for the rest of this year, though fiscal support may strengthen early next year. Despite the slowdown, analysts believe China remains on track to reach its 5% annual growth target.

China’s GDP grew:

5.4% in Q1
5.2% in Q2
4.8% in Q3