Bitcoin price isn’t rallying as expected, even though markets now price in an 84% chance of a December Fed rate cut.

Key factors weighing on BTC:

1. Macro uncertainty & Fed guidance: Previous rate cuts failed to trigger strong gains, and December may follow the same pattern.
2. Rare USD signal: A historically bearish U.S. dollar indicator has appeared, hinting at downside pressure.
3. Short-term holder selling: BTC fell below the break-even price for short-term investors, triggering liquidations and forced sales.
4. Long-term holders calm: Investors holding over a year remain profitable, keeping deeper market capitulation at bay.
5. Political shifts: Reports suggest the Trump team is influencing Fed decisions to accelerate rate cuts and liquidity easing in 2026.

Conclusion: Bitcoin faces near-term pressure despite rate-cut optimism. Long-term holders remain steady, but short-term selling and macro/political factors are keeping BTC under stress.