• Current Price: BTC trades at $87,305, down 20.6% from the start of November.
• Seasonal Trends: November, historically BTC’s strongest month (+40.8% avg.), is underperforming this year. October also closed negative (-3.69%). Analysts note historic seasonality hasn’t held.
• Short-Term Holder Activity: BTC fell below the lower band of the short-term holder cost-basis model; many buyers above $106,000 are “capitulating at a loss.”
• Whale Interest: Slowly rising—wallets holding ≥100 BTC increased by 91 (0.47%) since Nov. 11, hinting at renewed accumulation.
• Market Outlook: Two scenarios: either a resurgence in demand or a longer accumulation phase. December is expected to be quieter, historically averaging +4.75% returns.

Despite weak November performance, growing whale activity could support BTC’s next move.