Qantas Airways has received a cautiously optimistic outlook from Citi as the airline begins rolling out its ultra-long-haul services, including the flagship Sydney–London nonstop route.
Citi analyst Samuel Seow said the investment case for the initial phase of Qantas’s Project Sunrise appears “reasonable,” pointing to strong underlying economics on existing long-haul routes. He noted that the airline currently achieves about a 20% revenue premium per average seat-kilometer on its Sydney–Perth route, which is seen as a comparable benchmark for ultra-long-haul performance.
Seow added that the Airbus A350 aircraft being used for these new routes offers additional advantages, including higher freight capacity, which could further improve route economics by diversifying revenue streams beyond passenger fares.
Importantly, Citi believes Qantas’s gradual rollout strategy helps reduce execution risk. By initially focusing on more established and commercially proven routes, the airline is effectively “de-risking” the early phase of its ambitious long-distance expansion plan.
Citi maintained a “Buy” rating on Qantas Airways with a price target of A$10.40 per share. The stock was trading at around A$9.99 ahead of market open.
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