Mumbai, December 1, 2025 – Nomura economists have upgraded their projections for India’s fiscal 2026 GDP growth to 7.5%, up from 7.0%, following a robust performance in the quarter ending September.

India’s second-quarter GDP growth rose 8.2% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and up from 7.8% in the first quarter. However, sequential growth remained largely unchanged at 1.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous quarter.

Nomura highlighted that while fixed investment, government spending, and net exports eased, the GDP expansion was supported by improved private consumption. Real GDP growth averaged 8% in the first half of the fiscal year, reflecting resilient domestic demand.

Despite the strong headline numbers, the economists cautioned that urban income growth remains weak, industrial production growth is low, and the external sector faces continued pressure from steep U.S. tariffs.

Nomura also maintains its call for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) later this month to support continued growth.