The monthly XRP chart has entered one of its most decisive phases in years, and prominent analyst Egrag Crypto has outlined a clear roadmap for the cryptocurrency. Known for his long-standing bullish stance on XRP, Egrag provided a technical breakdown detailing three potential outcomes based on key price levels.

Key Resistance Levels: $2.60 and $3.40

XRP is currently trading around $2.20, slightly above an important Fibonacci support level. Momentum is still uncertain as the monthly candle nears closure.

• $2.60 – This level coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement on the monthly chart. Egrag notes that a close above $2.60 would be bullish, though the asset would still face potential resistance. XRP previously tested this zone in the first half of 2025 before breaking above it in July.
• $3.40 – Representing the 0.888 Fibonacci retracement, a monthly close above this price would confirm a super-bullish macro breakout. Egrag summarized the potential rally with the phrase: “we are so back.” The chart shows a tight compression under this zone, suggesting a decisive breakout could trigger a rapid push toward new all-time highs.

Downside Risk: 21-Month EMA

The analyst was equally direct about the bearish scenario: a close below the 21-month EMA, currently around $1.83–$1.90, would represent a severe failure of the bullish trend structure. Egrag bluntly noted: “we are f**ked, no sugar-coating it.”

Such a breakdown would likely drag XRP into a deeper corrective phase, undoing much of the price gains made this year.

Institutional Support Could Reinforce Bullish Case

Adding to the bullish outlook, 21Shares announced that its US Spot XRP ETF (TOXR) has received SEC approval and will officially launch on Monday. Early inflows from institutional participation could strengthen XRP’s upward momentum, particularly if the price crosses above $2.60 in December.

Bottom Line

XRP is at a critical crossroads on the monthly chart. A close above $2.60 could resume bullish momentum, while a break below the 21-month EMA would signal a major reversal. Combined with the upcoming TOXR ETF launch, December may prove pivotal for the cryptocurrency’s short- and long-term trajectory.