Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is ending November on a grim note, tracking the 2022 bear market bottom with near-perfect correlation, according to network economist Timothy Peterson. With the final month of 2025 underway, Bitcoin has disappointed bulls with a 36% decline from all-time highs, echoing patterns from three years ago.

November Performance Among the Worst on Record

Peterson’s analysis highlights a stark resemblance between 2H2025 and 2H2022:

• Daily correlation between BTC this year and 2022: ~80%
• Monthly correlation: ~98%

“This month ranks in the bottom 10% of daily price paths since 2015,” Peterson noted. The data suggests that if historical patterns persist, a significant Bitcoin recovery may not occur until well into Q1 2026.

Historically, a “red” November often results in a similarly weak December, though with slightly less severe losses.

Signs of Institutional Support Emerging

Despite the bearish backdrop, there are early hints that institutional capital is returning to the market:

• US equities have attracted massive inflows: $900 billion since November 2024, with $450 billion in the last five months alone.
• Crypto ETFs show promising activity: Bitcoin ETFs saw $220 million in inflows over Thanksgiving week, while Ether ETFs added $312 million.

This trend suggests that the worst of the institutional sell-off may be behind us, potentially setting the stage for a year-end recovery in risk assets, including crypto.

The Outlook for Bitcoin

While Bitcoin is still under pressure and its year-end trajectory remains uncertain, macro sentiment and institutional support could provide relief. Analysts point to the possibility of a “Santa rally” across risk assets, which may help crypto absorb selling pressure and stabilize as 2025 closes.

Investors will be watching closely in December to see whether short-term inflows and market structure can reverse Bitcoin’s downward momentum or if historical patterns continue to dictate its path.