The Bitcoin network is approaching its next difficulty adjustment at block 927,360, with estimates pointing to a rise from 149 trillion to nearly 150 trillion, according to CoinWarz. Although the increase is modest, it comes at a time when miners are already operating on razor-thin margins.

Hashprice Near Break-Even Levels

Data from Hashrate Index shows:

• Hashprice: ~$38.3 per PH/s/day
• Break-even for many miners: ~$40 per PH/s/day
• Recent low: below $35 per PH/s/day (Nov 21)

When hashprice dips below the break-even mark, miners—especially smaller or less efficient operations—must decide whether to keep mining at a loss or temporarily shut down machines.

The network’s average 9.97-minute block time helped trigger the most recent difficulty drop from 152.2T → 149.3T, but hashpower remains strong enough to push it upward again.

Hardware Risks: Bitmain Under U.S. Investigation

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is reportedly investigating Bitmain, the world’s dominant ASIC manufacturer (controls ~80% of market share).

Industry Concerns:

• Bitmain machines may have potential for remote access vulnerabilities.
• U.S. restrictions, tariffs, or sanctions could:
  • Increase ASIC prices
  • Delay shipments
  • Slow down mining expansion across North America
• With such market concentration, any disruption could affect global mining capacity.

China’s Mining Landscape: Uptick but No Policy Reversal Expected

China’s share of global hashpower has slightly risen:

• From 13.75% (Q1 2025) → 14% currently, according to Hashrate Index
• Still behind the U.S. and Russia

Historically:

• China’s hash rate fell to 0% in July 2021 after the nationwide ban
• Rose unofficially to 22.29% by Sept 2021
• Cambridge discontinued public mining map updates in early 2022

Will China lift the mining ban?

Experts say no, because:

• Beijing argues crypto activity disturbs financial order
• Concerns over illegal transactions and capital flight
• Strong political and regulatory stance against private crypto mining

Even though some scholars want miners to use excess energy, a formal reversal of the ban is considered highly unlikely.

Overall Outlook

• Difficulty rising despite low profitability shows the network remains strong.
• Miners under cost pressure may face December shutdown decisions if hashprice falls.
• Regulatory and hardware risks—especially involving Bitmain—could impact the global mining supply chain.
• China’s minor hashrate rebound is not enough to change policy, but signals continued underground mining activity.

Sentiment:
Cautious. Network remains resilient, but miner margins, hardware risks, and geopolitical pressures create uncertainty heading into 2026.