Bitcoin Miners Lead Gains
Several US-listed crypto-related stocks surged on Friday, fueled by prediction-market odds for a December rate cut jumping to 87% on Polymarket—the highest this month.

• Bitcoin miners Cleanspark, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining led the rally, posting strong single-day gains and double-digit increases over the past five days.
• Other crypto-linked firms, including Circle (USDC issuer), Strategy (MicroStrategy), and Coinbase, also saw modest gains.

Bitcoin Performance

• BTC recovered from lows of around $82,000 on Nov. 21 to register a weekly gain of ~7% (CoinGecko data).

Fed Commentary Drives Prediction Market Volatility

• Oct. 29: Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a December rate cut was “not a foregone conclusion,” triggering a drop in Polymarket odds from 89% to as low as 22% by Nov. 20.
• Nov. 17: Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested considering a rate cut, citing a weakening labor market and inflation near the 2% target, causing prediction-market odds to surge again.

Expansion of Prediction Markets

• Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have grown rapidly, allowing traders to bet on real-world events such as Fed actions.
• Polymarket partnered with TKO Group Holdings to support UFC and Zuffa Boxing, expanding its event coverage.
• Kalshi raised $1 billion from Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, valuing the company at $11 billion, following a $300 million raise in October.
• Coinbase is rumored to be developing its own prediction-market platform via Coinbase Financial Markets, potentially powered by Kalshi.
• Robinhood reported that prediction markets are among its fastest-growing revenue streams, with over one million users trading nine billion contracts since the product launched in March.

Takeaway
The rising odds of a Fed rate cut, combined with institutional and retail investor activity in prediction markets, are supporting rallies in crypto-linked equities and creating a dynamic interplay between monetary policy expectations and market performance.