Bitcoin may have significant upside potential as its current price appears misaligned with the forward macroeconomic outlook, according to crypto analysts.
“The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” said André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, referring to March 2020, when global pandemic fears pushed Bitcoin from around $8,000 to below $5,000.
Dragosch noted that Bitcoin’s current setup mirrors the extreme risk-reward conditions of that period but is also pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022. He cited factors such as aggressive quantitative tightening by the US Federal Reserve and the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.
Bitcoin Pricing in a Recessionary Environment
“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” Dragosch said, arguing that the cryptocurrency has already factored in much of the negative news. On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassured the public that the US is not expected to enter a recession in 2026, potentially easing some macroeconomic concerns.
Despite these assurances, Bitcoin’s price has struggled to maintain momentum in recent weeks. After reaching new all-time highs of $125,100 on October 5, BTC entered a downtrend following a $19 billion liquidation event on October 10, shortly after US President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.
Crypto market sentiment worsened when Bitcoin fell below the psychological $100,000 level on November 13 and briefly dipped below $90,000 on November 20, though it rebounded above that level within days.
Macro Stimulus Could Support Growth Into 2026
Dragosch believes that global growth is likely to accelerate, driven by the lingering effects of prior monetary stimulus. He compared the current environment to the post-COVID period, which supported a strong market recovery.
“I genuinely think we’re staring at a similar macro setup right now,” Dragosch said, suggesting that Bitcoin could benefit from these conditions in the months ahead.
Market Participants Remain Bullish
Other crypto experts are also optimistic about Bitcoin’s near-term prospects.
Trader Alessio Rastani told Cointelegraph that the recent drop may not signal the start of a prolonged bear cycle, noting that similar setups have historically preceded strong rallies roughly 75% of the time.
Meanwhile, Tom Lee, chair of BitMine, expressed confidence that Bitcoin will reclaim $100,000 by the end of the year and could even reach new all-time highs, signaling a resilient market outlook despite recent volatility.