Americans are expected to spend heavily during the five-day Thanksgiving weekend (Nov. 27–Dec. 1, 2025), fueled by free shipping, limited-time deals, and strong retailer promotions.

Key Stats:

• 186.9 million shoppers expected over the weekend (up from 183.4 million last year) – NRF & Prosper Insights
• Black Friday: 130.4 million shoppers
• Cyber Monday: 73.9 million shoppers
• Average spend per shopper: $542 (up from $529 in 2024)
• Millennials lead spending: $764 average per person
• Shopping channels: 83% plan in-store shopping, 83% online delivery, 58% buy online & pick up in-store

Retailers are offering fewer, shorter promotions, which may support profit margins, although Walmart’s aggressive Black Friday cuts may force rivals to match deals. Walmart (WMT) is heavily represented in Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA), which has gained 17% YTD and 2.6% last week.

ETFs Likely to Benefit from Strong Holiday Spending

Investors can consider ETFs tied to retail, online shopping, digital payments, and consumer discretionary sectors:

Retail ETFs:

• SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) – Broad retail exposure
• Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) – E-commerce-focused
• ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) – Online retail sector

Digital Payments & FinTech ETFs:

• Amplify Digital Payments ETF (IPAY) – Payment-processing companies
• iShares FinTech Active ETF (BPAY) – FinTech innovation and growth

Consumer Discretionary / Small-Cap ETFs:

• Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF (PSCD) – Smaller consumer-focused companies benefiting from holiday spending

Takeaway:
The combination of robust consumer participation, rising online shopping, and targeted retailer promotions positions consumer, retail, and payment ETFs as likely winners over the Thanksgiving weekend. Investors can gain exposure to these trends via ETFs that track retail, online, and consumer discretionary segments.