Bitcoin (BTC) may be emerging from a tough stretch of seasonal selling, potentially setting the stage for a late-year rally toward $100,000, according to BTIG chief technical strategist Jonathan Krinsky.

Krinsky notes that Bitcoin is looking oversold after a period of weakness, and historical seasonal patterns suggest the cryptocurrency is entering a period of strength. “The average seasonal pattern for BTC bottoms around November 26 and has a strong tailwind into year-end,” he said, referencing data from 2015 to 2024.

Recent Price Action

Bitcoin has been creeping higher over the past week, even while U.S. markets took a Thanksgiving break. The cryptocurrency rose from approximately $87,000 on Wednesday to over $91,000 by Thursday, trading at $91,615 on Friday—levels not seen in more than a week.

The weekly gain of over 8% comes amid a broader bounce in risk assets, with BTC closely tracking movements in U.S. growth stocks. Despite this recovery, Bitcoin remains 27% below its October 6 record high of $126,272, reflecting recent volatility and risk-off sentiment in broader markets.

Factors Affecting Bitcoin

Several factors have weighed on BTC in recent weeks:

• Federal Reserve uncertainty: Investors remain cautious over potential interest rate cuts.
• Institutional outflows: Large traders and long-term holders have been taking profits.
• Market correlation: Bitcoin’s moves are increasingly mirroring U.S. growth stocks, drawing attention from equity investors.

Looking Ahead

Krinsky’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s seasonal tailwinds could provide momentum into the end of the year. If historical patterns hold, BTC could see continued upside toward the $100,000 mark, potentially recovering much of its recent losses.

As the year-end approaches, market participants will be watching both macroeconomic cues and investor sentiment to gauge whether Bitcoin can sustain a seasonal rally or encounter renewed selling pressure.