1. Stock Market Reaction to Black Friday
Investors had reason to be thankful last week, with a strong rebound in the stock market amid a challenging month. However, Black Friday itself may influence the next market move, as it offers insight into consumer behavior beyond government surveys.
The 42-day U.S. government shutdown disrupted economic data releases, leaving Black Friday sales as a critical alternative data point for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest-rate decisions. Traditionally, Black Friday focuses on discretionary goods, but a slowdown in the economy could see spending shift toward essentials, potentially signaling weaker economic conditions and raising the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December.
Black Friday can also reveal disparities in consumer behavior by income bracket, highlighting a K-shaped recovery where high-income earners recover faster than others.
2. CME Futures Halted by Data Center Outage
A technical issue at CME Group’s CyrusOne data centers disrupted U.S. index futures trading on Black Friday, beginning around 9:45 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday. The outage affected futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, gold, and oil. CME confirmed they were resolving the issue. This was the first disruption of this scale to U.S. futures at CME since February 2019.
3. Holiday Shopping Trends
Record turnout expected: 186.9 million shoppers plan to shop in-store and online from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, per National Retail Federation estimates.
In-store traffic: Black Friday is expected to be the busiest shopping day of the holiday season, with store traffic about double the second-busiest day before Christmas.
Online deals: Adobe predicts $43.7 billion in online spending over the five-day period, up 6.3% from 2024, with Black Friday alone expected to generate $11.7 billion and Cyber Monday $14.2 billion. Average online discounts are expected to be 28%, slightly below 2024’s 30%, as tariffs and inventory constraints limit aggressive markdowns.
4. Crypto Firm Linked to Trump Family Dismisses Executives
ALT5 Sigma, associated with a Trump-family-backed crypto project, dismissed acting CEO/CFO Jonathan Hugh and COO Ron Pitters following a sharp drop in share price and disclosure of an overseas legal matter. ALT5 partners with World Liberty Financial, in which Donald Trump and family members hold roughly 38%. ALT5’s stock has fallen 72% since a Nasdaq bell-ringing event with the Trump sons.
5. Prediction Markets and Robinhood Expansion
Robinhood Markets has launched a futures and derivatives exchange joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, expanding its prediction markets platform.
Prediction markets allow users to place peer-to-peer bets on unique events, differing from traditional sportsbooks. Robinhood’s hub has seen 9 billion contracts traded by over 1 million customers in its first year, generating over $100 million in annualized revenue.
Competitor Polymarket now offers event contracts through brokerage firms, authorized by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Analysts warn that such markets could increase financial risks for users, particularly lower-income gamblers, who may accumulate losses without realizing the impact on their bank accounts.