OPEC+ is likely to keep oil production unchanged at its meetings on Sunday while agreeing on a mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity, sources told Reuters. The eight countries that gradually raised output in 2025—Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—are expected to pause further hikes in Q1 2026.

The proposed capacity mechanism, long discussed within the group, will serve as a reference for 2027 output baselines. OPEC+ ministers will hold a series of four online meetings on Sunday, covering OPEC ministers, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, all OPEC+ ministers, and the eight key members.

OPEC+ had previously curtailed supplies, peaking at 5.85 million barrels per day in March 2025, before the eight members gradually increased output by around 2.9 million bpd through December. Group-wide production targets for 2026, including a 2 million bpd cut, are expected to remain unchanged.