China’s crude oil flows into storage likely increased in October, as strong imports and domestic production outstripped refinery processing. Calculations based on official data suggest a surplus of about 690,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October, up from 570,000 bpd in September. Refineries processed 14.94 million bpd, up 6.4% from October last year, though below September’s two-year high of 15.26 million bpd. Crude imports totaled 11.39 million bpd, with domestic output at 4.24 million bpd, leaving 15.63 million bpd available for refiners. Subtracting refinery processing, around 690,000 bpd was likely added to commercial or strategic storage.

While not all surplus crude may have entered storage, it is evident that since March 2025, China has imported far more crude than needed for domestic fuel demand. For the first ten months, the surplus averaged roughly 900,000 bpd. Early 2025 saw rare draws on inventories in January and February when refinery throughput slightly exceeded crude availability.

Price-wise, the early-year inventory draw coincided with rising oil prices, with Brent futures peaking at $82.63 per barrel on January 15. Since then, prices have generally fallen, stabilizing around $60–$70 per barrel by mid-November. China’s inventory-building strategy appears opportunistic—importing more when prices are reasonable and pulling back when prices spike, as seen after the Israel-Iran conflict in June.

China’s storage flows act as a buffer for global crude prices, absorbing surpluses and moderating price swings, especially as OPEC+ adjusts production targets. This dynamic highlights the influence of China’s crude imports and storage behavior on the global oil market.