Chinese exports are expected to remain relatively strong even if the United States proceeds with its proposed new tariffs, according to analysts at BofA Securities.
The U.S. recently proposed new import tariffs of at least 10% on goods from more than a dozen countries, including an additional 12.5% tariff on products from China. While the announcement raised concerns about global trade, BofA believes the impact on China's export sector may be limited.
According to the firm's analysis, the proposed tariff increase is relatively modest compared with previous rounds of trade restrictions. As a result, it is unlikely to significantly disrupt China's export momentum in the near term.
A key reason for this optimism is the ongoing global semiconductor cycle. Demand for chips, electronics, artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centers, and advanced technology products continues to grow worldwide. This trend supports both China's imports of semiconductor components and its exports of finished technology products.
China remains deeply integrated into global supply chains for electronics, machinery, and industrial components. Even with additional tariffs, many manufacturers and multinational companies continue to rely on Chinese production capabilities due to established infrastructure, scale, and cost efficiency.
BofA also expects exports of high-tech goods and intermediate components to remain strong as the global semiconductor upcycle continues. Rising demand for AI-related hardware, servers, networking equipment, and electronic devices could help offset some of the pressure from higher tariffs.
As a result, the investment bank maintains a constructive near-term outlook for Chinese exports, suggesting that trade growth could remain resilient despite increasing geopolitical tensions and evolving trade policies.
For investors, the report highlights that sectors linked to semiconductors, technology manufacturing, electronics exports, and industrial supply chains may continue to benefit from strong global demand, even as tariff-related risks remain a factor to monitor.
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