Fertility rates have fallen dramatically across the world over the past several decades, declining from around five births per woman in the 1960s to a global average of roughly 2.2 births per woman in 2024.

This shift is transforming population growth, labor markets, economic development, and age demographics worldwide. While some countries continue to experience rapid population growth, many advanced economies are now facing aging populations and shrinking birth rates.

The data below, based on the United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 Revision, highlights fertility rates and population sizes across the world’s largest countries and territories in 2025.

Most Populous Countries by Fertility Rate (2025)

Most of the World Is Below Replacement Fertility

Around 71% of the global population now lives in countries with fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.

Replacement fertility refers to the level required for a population to maintain its size over time without immigration. When fertility remains below this threshold for long periods, countries often face:

• Aging populations
• Labor shortages
• Slower economic growth
• Rising pension and healthcare costs

Several of the world’s largest economies already fall below replacement fertility, including:

• 🇨🇳 China (CHN) — 1.02
• 🇯🇵 Japan (JPN) — 1.23
• 🇩🇪 Germany (DEU) — 1.46
• 🇷🇺 Russia (RUS) — 1.46
• 🇺🇸 United States (USA) — 1.62
• 🇧🇷 Brazil (BRA) — 1.60

China’s fertility collapse is especially significant. After decades of the one-child policy between 1980 and 2015, China now has one of the world’s lowest birth rates. Despite government incentives and policy reversals, fertility has continued to decline.

India and Africa Drive Future Population Growth

While fertility is falling almost everywhere, future population growth is becoming increasingly concentrated in a smaller group of countries.

India remains slightly below replacement fertility at 1.94 births per woman, yet its enormous population means it will continue growing for years.

Meanwhile, several countries across Sub-Saharan Africa maintain some of the world’s highest fertility rates:

Nigeria alone is projected to become one of the world’s largest countries by population before the end of the century.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to account for the majority of global population growth through 2100.

The Lowest Fertility Rates in the World

At the opposite end of the spectrum, several East Asian economies now have historically low fertility rates:

South Korea currently has one of the lowest fertility rates ever recorded for a major economy. High housing costs, expensive education, demanding work cultures, and delayed marriage are often cited as major contributing factors.

A Major Demographic Shift Is Underway

The world is now entering a new demographic era.

For decades, rapid population growth defined the global economy. But increasingly, many countries are confronting the opposite problem: too few births to sustain long-term population growth.

This divide between high-fertility developing economies and low-fertility advanced economies could reshape:

• Global labor markets
• Economic growth patterns
• Immigration policy
• Pension systems
• Healthcare demand
• Geopolitical influence

Countries that successfully adapt to aging populations while maintaining economic productivity may gain a major long-term advantage in the decades ahead.