Feb. 19, 2026 – XRP slipped below its 200-week moving average on Thursday, marking the first time the token has fallen under this key technical level since breaking above it in November 2024. The decline comes just a day before the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its advance estimate for Q4 2025 GDP.
On the weekly chart from Bitfinex, XRP breached the 200-week moving average near $1.419, a level that had acted as a critical floor for the token over the past year. Analysts say this breakdown shifts XRP’s outlook from rally/consolidation to a potential prolonged correction.
Technical indicators reinforce the cautious sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the low 30s, suggesting sustained selling pressure rather than panic liquidation. Immediate support levels are now seen at $1.1211, which corresponds to early February sell-offs, and $1.00, the technical bottom reached after last year’s “Black Friday” $40 billion liquidation event. Resistance clusters remain around $1.49 to $1.50, where recent relief rallies stalled earlier this month.
Macro Data Could Influence XRP Recovery
The upcoming U.S. Q4 2025 GDP release on Friday, Feb. 20, adds a macro layer of uncertainty. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects 3.6% annualized growth, while the New York Fed Nowcast anticipates 2.7%. Consensus estimates range from 1% to 2.5%, reflecting a slowdown from Q3’s 4.4% pace.
A figure near the high end could support the soft-landing narrative and stabilize risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a downside surprise would likely strengthen the U.S. dollar and extend selling pressure across high-beta tokens such as XRP.
On-Chain Activity and Social Sentiment
XRP-specific factors also influence the outlook. On-chain activity on the XRP Ledger has declined in recent weeks, though social sentiment shows a five-week high in bullish commentary, according to Santiment. This optimism is driven partly by institutional updates, such as the recent Permissioned DEX adjustment.
For now, XRP remains below a key multiyear benchmark, trading amid nervous anticipation ahead of the GDP release. Market participants will be closely watching whether the break below the 200-week MA signals a deeper downtrend or is merely a temporary macro-driven pullback.