Key Finding: Major Asian economies—China, India, Japan, and Vietnam—have reduced the carbon intensity of their power sectors more than the United States and Europe in 2025, signaling a potential East-West divergence in energy transition momentum heading into 2026.

The U.S. Stands Out Negatively:
According to data from energy think tank Ember, the United States is the only major power market to have increased the carbon intensity of its power generation in the first ten months of 2025 compared to 2024.

• Primary Driver: A roughly 13% increase in coal-fired power generation, driven by a sharp rise in natural gas prices, which has made coal more economically attractive for utilities. This has pushed U.S. power sector emissions to three-year highs.
• Carbon Intensity: U.S. power output averaged 383.3 grams of CO2 per KWh, up from 381.2 grams in the same period last year.

Comparative Regional Performance (Jan-Oct 2025 vs. 2024):

• Europe: Carbon intensity down ~2%.
• India: Carbon intensity down 5%.
• Japan: Carbon intensity down 3%.
• Vietnam: Carbon intensity down 2%.
• China: Continued its streak of consistent annual declines since 2019, with intensity falling to 562 grams of CO2 per KWh from nearly 670 grams in 2019.

Underlying Dynamics:

• Coal Dependence: Asian nations remain far more reliant on coal (India ~70%, China 55%, Vietnam 48%, Japan ~27%) than Europe (<13%) or the U.S. (~16%). However, only the U.S. and Japan increased absolute coal-fired output this year.
• Growth Source: In the U.S., coal plants accounted for a staggering ~73% of the increase in total electricity supplies this year. In contrast, in India, increased coal generation accounted for only half of supply growth.
• Economic Factors: Weak industrial activity has capped power demand and emissions in China and Europe. A recovery could reverse their carbon intensity trends in 2026.

Outlook for 2026:
The U.S. trend is expected to persist, with high natural gas prices likely to keep coal generation elevated well into 2026. This sets the stage for the U.S. to continue bucking the global trend of steadily cleaner power systems, while Asia's path will be highly sensitive to the strength of its economic recovery.

Bottom Line: While Asian power systems are still far more carbon-intensive, their improvement in 2025 contrasts sharply with the U.S. backslide. The data highlights how short-term fuel economics and policy choices can significantly alter decarbonization trajectories, even among the world's largest economies.