Analysts at CreditSights project that Meituan’s credit outlook will weaken in the fourth quarter before seeing a modest recovery in 2026, as intense competition continues to pressure its core businesses.

Key Forecasts:

• Revenue Growth: Expected to slow to 8% in 2025, down from 22% in 2024, due to competitive pressures on food delivery and commission revenues. Growth may rebound to 11% in 2026 as competition normalizes and its overseas unit Keeta expands.
• Profitability: The EBITDA margin is forecast to fall to -2% in 2025, driven by higher commission payouts and promotional spending to defend market share. A gradual recovery is expected in 2026, but margins are likely to remain below historical levels amid ongoing competition from rivals like JD.com and Alibaba.

Recommendation:
CreditSights maintains an “Underperform” rating on Meituan. The stock last traded at HK$96.65.